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Weekly Forecasts Bulletin

Solar activity forecast for the period October 13 – October 19, 2017

Activity level: mostly very low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range A3.0-A9.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 66-80 f.u.
Events: class C (0-3/period), class M (0/period), class X (0/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 0-50

Martina Exnerova
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 13 – October 19, 2017

Quiet: Oct 17 – 19
Unsettled: Oct 14 – 18
Active:    Oct 13 – 14
Minor storm:  Oct 12 – 13
Major storm: 0
Severe storm: 0

Geomagnetic activity summary:
The local geomagnetic activity has reached its maximum at October 11. The
local K-index reached its value = 5 at 17 hour UTC.
The coming days, we expect active conditions continuing to the Saturday,
October 14. At the Sunday, October 15, we expect geomagnetic activity
decrease to unsettled level, the same conditions are expected also at
Monday, October 16. The last days of forecasted week, we expect quiet to
unsettled conditions.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 13 – November 8, 2017

Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on October and November – irregularly
mostly quiet on October and November – irregularly
quiet to unsettled October (18 – 22, 24,) 28 – 29, (30 – 31,) November (1 – 2, 4 – 6)
quiet to active on October 13 – 16, (17, 23,) 26 – 27, November 3, 7
active to disturbed on October 25, November 8

Amplifications of the solar wind, mostly from coronal holes, are expected on October 12 – 17, (- 18, 22, 24,) 25 – 26, November 7 – 12

Remarks:
– Amplifications of the solar wind – prediction is less reliable at present.
– Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement
and/or lower reliability of prediction.
– Beware of paraskavedekatriafobia tomorrow!

F. K. Janda, OK1HH
Czech Propagation Interested Group
OK1HH compiling weekly forecasts since January 1978
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz

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