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Propagation outlook from Boulder

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Nov 13 0513 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 – 12 November 2017

Solar activity was very low throughout the period under a spotless
disk. The only activity was an eruptive filament observed in the NE
quadrant beginning at 10/0630 UTC in SDO/AIA 304 imagery. An
associated CME was observed off the eastern limb in SOHO/LASCO C2
imagery beginning at 10/0824 UTC, however subsequent analysis showed
no Earth-directed component. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels on 06-07 Nov and reached high levels on 08-12 Nov. The
largest flux of the period was 25,349 pfu observed at 11/1435 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to G2 (Moderate) storm
levels over the period. The period began with solar wind speeds
between 285-355 km/s and total field around 4 nT. At approximately
07/0300 UTC, phi angle switched from a negative solar sector to
positive. Additionally, an increase in solar wind speed and total
field was observed due to the arrival of a co-rotating interaction
region preceding a positive polarity, polar connected, coronal hole
high speed stream (CH HSS). Total field reached a maximum of 23 nT
at 07/1545 UTC while the Bz component reached a maximum southward
deflection of -15 nT at 07/1508 UTC. Solar wind speed reached double
peaks of 699 km/s at 08/0004 UTC and 719 km/s at 10/1257 UTC before
slowly receding to end of period values near 430 km/s. The
geomagnetic field responded with quiet levels on 06 Nov, reached
G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) levels on 07-08 Nov, reached unsettled to
active levels on 09-10 Nov, and calmed to mostly quiet conditions on
11-12 Nov.

FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 13 NOVEMBER-9 DECEMBER 2017

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 13-14 Nov, 16-24 Nov, and 05-09 Dec
due to recurrent CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels on 14-23 Nov, 29-30 Nov, and 04-08 Dec with G1 (Minor) levels
likely on 20-22 Nov, 04-07 Dec and G2 (Moderate) levels likely on
04-05 Dec due to recurrent CH HSS effects.

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Nov 13 0513 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2017-11-13
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2017 Nov 13 70 5 2
2017 Nov 14 73 15 4
2017 Nov 15 73 18 4
2017 Nov 16 73 12 4
2017 Nov 17 73 15 4
2017 Nov 18 73 12 4
2017 Nov 19 73 8 3
2017 Nov 20 75 20 5
2017 Nov 21 75 20 5
2017 Nov 22 75 20 5
2017 Nov 23 75 8 3
2017 Nov 24 75 5 2
2017 Nov 25 75 5 2
2017 Nov 26 75 5 2
2017 Nov 27 75 5 2
2017 Nov 28 73 5 2
2017 Nov 29 72 8 3
2017 Nov 30 71 10 3
2017 Dec 01 70 5 2
2017 Dec 02 70 5 2
2017 Dec 03 69 5 2
2017 Dec 04 69 35 6
2017 Dec 05 68 40 6
2017 Dec 06 68 28 5
2017 Dec 07 68 20 5
2017 Dec 08 69 10 3
2017 Dec 09 69 5 2
(SWPC via DXLD)

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