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Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Il servizio della NOAA prevede : “further increase to active levels is expected on day 3 (05 April) with minor to major storm periods at high latitudes as the high-speed stream continues.”

Speriamo AZZECCHI la previsione !!!!!!!

Dario Monferini

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Apr 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 093 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant flare activity occurred. Region 987 (S08W89) was quiet and stable as it neared the west limb. Region 988 (S07W63) remained a stable H-type.
Minor filament activity was reported in plage Region 989 (S11W28).
No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day 1 (03 April). Activity is expected to increase to unsettled levels on day 2 (04 April) with active periods at high latitudes as a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream becomes geoeffective. A further increase to active levels is expected on day 3 (05 April) with minor to major storm periods at high latitudes as the high-speed stream continues.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Apr 076
Predicted 03 Apr-05 Apr 075/075/070
90 Day Mean 02 Apr 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr 005/005-007/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/40
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/50
Minor storm 01/01/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05

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