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Propagation outlook from Boulder

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Aug 17 0313 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 – 16 August 2015

Solar activity was at very low to low levels this period. Region
2396 (S17, L=038, Ekc/840; 09 Aug) and Region 2401 (S11, L=270,
Dai/070; 16 Aug) produced weak C-class flares on 11 Aug, 14 Aug, and
15 Aug. Solar activity was very low for all other days.

On 12 Aug, a 13 degree long filament centered near S29W29 produced a
partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) signature visible on
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. This CME was determined to be Earth-directed.
On 14 Aug, two filaments disappeared. The first was 16 degrees long
centered near S12W41 and the second was a 17 degree long filament
centered near S39W30. Both filaments produced CMEs observed off the
SW limb observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. Model output suggests the
possibility of a glancing blow as they pass Earth on 18 Aug.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reach
high levels on 10 – 12 Aug, then decreased to moderate levels on 13
– 15 Aug, before returning to high levels on 16 Aug. A peak flux of
4100 was observed on 11 Aug.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels from 10
– 14 Aug, with an isolated period of active conditions early on 13
Aug. On 15 Aug, activity reached G3 (strong) levels with the arrival
of the 12 Aug CME. A shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft on
15/0745 UTC with a subsequent sudden impulse of 36 nT at NGK at
15/0908 UTC. G2 (moderate) and G1 (minor) conditions were observed
through 16 Aug as the CME effects transitioned into a positive
polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).

FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 17 AUGUST-12 SEPTEMBER 2015

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels throughout the
outlook period with a chance for C-class flare activity.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at moderate to high levels through period. Moderate
levels are expected from 17-23 Aug , 27-29 Aug, 02-05 Sep, and 09-11
Sep. High levels are expected from 25-26 Aug, 30 Aug – 01 Sep, 06-08
Sep, and 12 Sep.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels on 17 Aug due to a positive polarity
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Active levels are expected
on 23 Aug, 27 Aug, and 02-04 Sep from the influence of recurrent CH
HSSs. Field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Aug 17 0314 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2015-08-17
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2015 Aug 17      85          20          5
2015 Aug 18      85          15          4
2015 Aug 19      85           8          3
2015 Aug 20      85           5          2
2015 Aug 21      85           8          3
2015 Aug 22      85           8          3
2015 Aug 23      90          12          4
2015 Aug 24      90          10          3
2015 Aug 25      90           5          2
2015 Aug 26      90           5          2
2015 Aug 27      95          12          4
2015 Aug 28      95          10          3
2015 Aug 29      95          10          3
2015 Aug 30      95           5          2
2015 Aug 31      95           5          2
2015 Sep 01      95           5          2
2015 Sep 02      95          12          4
2015 Sep 03     100          22          5
2015 Sep 04     100          15          4
2015 Sep 05     105          12          3
2015 Sep 06     100          10          3
2015 Sep 07     100          10          3
2015 Sep 08      95           8          3
2015 Sep 09      90           8          3
2015 Sep 10      85           5          2
2015 Sep 11      85           5          2
2015 Sep 12      85          10          3
(SWPC via DXLD)

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