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:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Aug 17 0313 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 – 16 August 2015
Solar activity was at very low to low levels this period. Region
2396 (S17, L=038, Ekc/840; 09 Aug) and Region 2401 (S11, L=270,
Dai/070; 16 Aug) produced weak C-class flares on 11 Aug, 14 Aug, and
15 Aug. Solar activity was very low for all other days.
On 12 Aug, a 13 degree long filament centered near S29W29 produced a
partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) signature visible on
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. This CME was determined to be Earth-directed.
On 14 Aug, two filaments disappeared. The first was 16 degrees long
centered near S12W41 and the second was a 17 degree long filament
centered near S39W30. Both filaments produced CMEs observed off the
SW limb observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. Model output suggests the
possibility of a glancing blow as they pass Earth on 18 Aug.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reach
high levels on 10 – 12 Aug, then decreased to moderate levels on 13
– 15 Aug, before returning to high levels on 16 Aug. A peak flux of
4100 was observed on 11 Aug.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels from 10
– 14 Aug, with an isolated period of active conditions early on 13
Aug. On 15 Aug, activity reached G3 (strong) levels with the arrival
of the 12 Aug CME. A shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft on
15/0745 UTC with a subsequent sudden impulse of 36 nT at NGK at
15/0908 UTC. G2 (moderate) and G1 (minor) conditions were observed
through 16 Aug as the CME effects transitioned into a positive
polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 17 AUGUST-12 SEPTEMBER 2015
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels throughout the
outlook period with a chance for C-class flare activity.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at moderate to high levels through period. Moderate
levels are expected from 17-23 Aug , 27-29 Aug, 02-05 Sep, and 09-11
Sep. High levels are expected from 25-26 Aug, 30 Aug – 01 Sep, 06-08
Sep, and 12 Sep.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels on 17 Aug due to a positive polarity
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Active levels are expected
on 23 Aug, 27 Aug, and 02-04 Sep from the influence of recurrent CH
HSSs. Field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
throughout the remainder of the outlook period.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Aug 17 0314 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2015-08-17
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 Aug 17 85 20 5
2015 Aug 18 85 15 4
2015 Aug 19 85 8 3
2015 Aug 20 85 5 2
2015 Aug 21 85 8 3
2015 Aug 22 85 8 3
2015 Aug 23 90 12 4
2015 Aug 24 90 10 3
2015 Aug 25 90 5 2
2015 Aug 26 90 5 2
2015 Aug 27 95 12 4
2015 Aug 28 95 10 3
2015 Aug 29 95 10 3
2015 Aug 30 95 5 2
2015 Aug 31 95 5 2
2015 Sep 01 95 5 2
2015 Sep 02 95 12 4
2015 Sep 03 100 22 5
2015 Sep 04 100 15 4
2015 Sep 05 105 12 3
2015 Sep 06 100 10 3
2015 Sep 07 100 10 3
2015 Sep 08 95 8 3
2015 Sep 09 90 8 3
2015 Sep 10 85 5 2
2015 Sep 11 85 5 2
2015 Sep 12 85 10 3
(SWPC via DXLD)
