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Solar activity forecast for the period August 21 – 27, 2015

Solar activity forecast for the period August 21 – 27, 2015

Activity level: mostly low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range B1.5-B7.0
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 90-125 f.u.
Events: class C (0-12/day), class M (0-4/day), class X (0-1/period),
proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 10-85

Jozef Lesko
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz
_________________________________________________________________________

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 21 – 27, 2015

At the night to Friday, Aug 21, active episode is possible. Next two days,
we expect at most quiet to unsettled geomgnetic conditions (the unsettled
stage is a little more probable).
Starting at Monday, Aug 24, the unsettled conditons with an active episode
are probable. We expect the active episode caused by pass of coronal hole
at the Aug 24 or 25.

Tomas Bayer
Institute of Geophysics ASCR
Budkov Geomagnetic Observatory (BDV)
_________________________________________________________________________

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 21 – September 16, 2015

Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on September 9 – 10
mostly quiet on August 25, 31, September 1, 5 – 8, 11,
quiet to unsettled on August 21 – 22, 24, 29 – 30, September 12 – 15
quiet to active on August 23, 27 – 28, September 2 – 4, 16
active to disturbed on August (26), September 3

Amplifications of the solar wind are expected on August 23, 25 – 28,
September 1 – 4

Remarks:
– Reliability of predictions remains reduced in present solar cycle phase.
– Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

Petr Kolman, OK1MGW
Czech Propagation Interested Group
(OK1HH & OK1MGW, weekly forecasts since 1978)
e-mail: kolmanp(at)razdva.cz

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