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Propagation outlook from Boulder

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Sep 07 0436 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 31 Aug – 6 Sept 2015

Solar activity was at very low to low levels over the period. An
isolated C2 flare was observed at 31/0522 UTC from Region 2403 (S15,
L=193, class/area Fki/1190 on 25 Aug) and a C1 flare occurred at
03/1137 UTC from Region 2407 (N16, L=145, class/area Cso/050 on 01
Sep). No further notable flaring occurred during the period. On 04
September, an approximate 15 degree filament eruption, centered near
S17E10, was observed lifting off in SDO/AIA 304 imagery between
04/1709-1854 UTC. A partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was
observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 04/1948 UTC with most
of the ejecta directed off the SE limb. WSA/ENLIL analysis of the
CME determined that an Earth-directed component was not likely.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels from 31 August through 02 September and again from 05-06
September reaching a maximum flux value over the period of 3,188 pfu
at 05/1840 UTC. Moderate levels occurred on 03-04 September.

Geomagnetic field activity began the period at quiet levels under a
nominal solar wind regime. At 02/1522 UTC, a solar sector boundary
crossing was observed in ACE solar wind data accompanied by a slow
increase in solar wind speed. By late on 03 September, total field
increased to around 12-14 nT with the Bz component deflecting
southward to -10 nT. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on
02-03 September. By 04 September, solar wind increased to around
450-550 km/s range as a co-rotating interaction region (CIR)
followed by a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS) became geoeffective. Solar wind speeds remained in the 400-500
km/s range through the rest of the period. The geomagnetic field
responded with active to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels through
midday on 04 September followed by quiet to active levels on 05-06
September.

FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 7 SEPTEMBER-3 OCTOBER 2015

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with
M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) likely from 11-24 September
with the return of old Region 2403 (S15, L=192).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely
from 13-18 September, 20-21 September, 26-28 September and again
from 02-03 October due to CH HSS effects.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels
from 07-08, 11-16, 18-20, 24-25, and 30 September-03 October. Active
periods are expected on 07, 12, 19, 24 September-03 October with
minor storm periods (G1-Minor) possible on 19 September and 01
October, all due to recurrent CH HSS effects.

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Sep 07 0437 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2015-09-07
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2015 Sep 07      85          12          4
2015 Sep 08      85           8          3
2015 Sep 09      85           5          2
2015 Sep 10      85           5          2
2015 Sep 11      95           8          3
2015 Sep 12      95          12          4
2015 Sep 13      95           8          3
2015 Sep 14      95          10          3
2015 Sep 15     100          10          3
2015 Sep 16     105          10          3
2015 Sep 17     110           5          2
2015 Sep 18     115           8          3
2015 Sep 19     115          20          5
2015 Sep 20     115          10          3
2015 Sep 21     115           5          2
2015 Sep 22     115           5          2
2015 Sep 23     110           5          2
2015 Sep 24     105          15          4
2015 Sep 25     100          10          3
2015 Sep 26      95           5          2
2015 Sep 27      90           5          2
2015 Sep 28      90           5          2
2015 Sep 29      90           5          2
2015 Sep 30      90           8          3
2015 Oct 01      90          18          5
2015 Oct 02      85          12          4
2015 Oct 03      85          12          4
(SWPC via DXLD)

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