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Propagation outlook from Boulder

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2015 Oct 12 0140 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 – 11 October 2015

Solar activity was at very low levels throughout much of the period
(05-10 Oct) with only B-class flare activity observed. Solar
activity increased to low levels on 11 Oct due to a long-duration C3
flare at 11/2229 UTC from an unnumbered region behind the
southeastern limb. The seven numbered active regions on the visible
disk throughout the week were generally stable, simple, and
unproductive. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed
this period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
very high levels on 09, 11 Oct with high levels observed on 05-06,
08, and 10 Oct, all due to an enhanced solar wind environment and
increased geomagnetic activity caused by a coronal hole high speed
stream (CH HSS). Moderate flux levels were observed on 07 Oct.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
levels on 05 Oct and quiet to active levels on 06 Oct due to brief
periods of southward Bz in addition to isolated periods of
substorming. The influence of a recurrent positive polarity CH HSS
caused active to G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels on 07 Oct,
active to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 08 Oct, and
unsettled to active conditions on 09 Oct. Quiet to active field
conditions were observed on 10-11 Oct due to waning CH HSS effects,
an enhanced solar wind environment, and localized substorming.

FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 12 OCTOBER-07 NOVEMBER 2015

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels throughout the period
with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio
Blackouts) for 16-29 Oct due to the return of Region 2422 (S20,
L=102) which produced a total of 18 M-class flares last rotation.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be high levels on 12-15, 18-24 Oct, and 01-02, 04-07
Nov. Moderate flux levels are expected on 16-17, 25, and 27-28 Oct
with normal levels expected on 26, 29-31 Oct, and 03 Nov.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
storm levels on 12, 15-16 Oct, and 03 Nov due to the influence of
multiple recurrent coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSS). Active
levels are anticipated on 13-14, 17, 29 Oct, and 04-05 Nov. Quiet to
unsettled field activity is expected for the remainder of the
period.

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Oct 12 0140 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2015-10-12
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2015 Oct 12      85          20          5
2015 Oct 13      90          15          4
2015 Oct 14      90          18          4
2015 Oct 15      90          20          5
2015 Oct 16     100          20          5
2015 Oct 17     110          15          4
2015 Oct 18     110           8          3
2015 Oct 19     110           8          3
2015 Oct 20     110           8          3
2015 Oct 21     110           8          3
2015 Oct 22     120           8          3
2015 Oct 23     120           5          2
2015 Oct 24     120           5          2
2015 Oct 25     125           5          2
2015 Oct 26     125           5          2
2015 Oct 27     130           5          2
2015 Oct 28     120           8          3
2015 Oct 29     110          12          4
2015 Oct 30     100          10          3
2015 Oct 31      90           8          3
2015 Nov 01      85           8          3
2015 Nov 02      80           8          3
2015 Nov 03      80          20          5
2015 Nov 04      80          15          4
2015 Nov 05      80          15          4
2015 Nov 06      80          12          3
2015 Nov 07      85           8          3
(SWPC via DXLD)

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