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Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 – 17 January 2016

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Jan 18 0131 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 – 17 January 2016

Solar activity ranged from very low to low levels. Very low conditions were observed on 11-14 January and again on 16-17 January. Low levels occurred on 15 January with a few weak C-class flares observed from Region 2480 (N02, L=125, class/area Eso/190 on 10 Jan). A 14 degree long filament, centered near S30W03, erupted between 14/1803-2048 UTC. An associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was visible in SOHO LASCO imagery beginning at 14/2324 UTC. Analysis, and subsequent WSA-Enlil model output, determined a potential glancing blow could impact Earth early on 19 Jan.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the summary period.

Geomagnetic field activity began the period on 11-14 January at quiet to active levels due to effects from a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Quiet conditions persisted on 15-17 January. ACE satellite parameters indicated a maximum wind speed reading of 662 km/s at 12/0711 UTC. By period's end, wind speeds had declined to about 330 km/s. Total field (Bt) reached a maximum reading of 10 nT late on the 10th and generally ranged between 3-7 nT for a majority of the period. The Bz component varied between +/- 7 nT from late on the 11th through early on the 13th. Through the remainder of the period, Bz did not vary much beyond +/- 4 nT. The phi angle was in a predominately negative (towards) orientation through midday on 16 January when a rotation to a more positive (away) sector was observed.

FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 18 JAN – 13 FEB 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 18, 23-26, 29-31 January, 01-06 and 09-13 February. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active periods on 18-19 January due to possible glancing blow effects from the 14 Jan CME. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 22-23, 28-29 January, 02-03 and 07-09 February due to recurrent CH HSS effects. Predominately quiet levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Jan 18 0131 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2016-01-18
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2016 Jan 18     100           8          3
2016 Jan 19      95          15          4
2016 Jan 20      95          10          3
2016 Jan 21      95           8          3
2016 Jan 22      95          12          4
2016 Jan 23     100           8          3
2016 Jan 24     100           5          2
2016 Jan 25     100           5          2
2016 Jan 26     105           5          2
2016 Jan 27     105           5          2
2016 Jan 28     105          18          5
2016 Jan 29     105          12          4
2016 Jan 30     100           8          3
2016 Jan 31     105           5          2
2016 Feb 01     110           5          2
2016 Feb 02     110          15          4
2016 Feb 03     110          12          4
2016 Feb 04     110           8          3
2016 Feb 05     105           5          2
2016 Feb 06     105           5          2
2016 Feb 07     105          12          4
2016 Feb 08     105          12          4
2016 Feb 09     105          10          3
2016 Feb 10     105           8          3
2016 Feb 11     105           5          2
2016 Feb 12     100           5          2
2016 Feb 13     100           5          2
(SWPC via DXLD)

SWPC to Transfer Operations to its back-up site January 19-21, 2016

SWPC will be utilizing its back-up processing site starting at 11 am EST (16 UTC) on January 19, 2016 and remaining there until approximately 1 pm EST (18 UTC) on January 21, 2016.  There will be brief outages of SWPC data for upwards of one hour around 11 am EST (16 UTC) on both January 19 and January 21, 2016.

During the period of time SWPC is running operations from its backup site, updated Ionosonde data on the SWPC ftp server will not be available.  In addition, users will be unable to create new Product Subscription Service (PSS) accounts, or modify their existing accounts, during this period of time.  Alerts from our PSS system for existing accounts will not be impacted except for the brief periods of time mentioned above (SWPC Jan 15 via DXLD)

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