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Weekly Forecasts Bulletin

Solar activity forecast for the period August 5 – August 11, 2016

Activity level: mostly very low to low
X-ray background flux (1.0-8.0 A): in the range A5.0-B2.5
Radio flux (10.7 cm): a fluctuation in the range 65-100 f.u.
Events: class C (0-3/day), class M (0-1/period), class X (0/period), proton (0/period)
Relative sunspot number (Ri): in the range 0-70

Tomas Blaha
RWC Prague, Astronomical Institute, Solar Dept., Ondrejov, Czech Republic
e-mail: sunwatch(at)asu.cas.cz

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 5 – August 11, 2016

Quiet: Aug 06 – 10
Unsettled: Aug 4 – 5, Aug 8 – 9
Active:  possible Aug 11
Minor storm: 0
Major storm:0
Severe storm: 0

Geomagnetic activity summary:
Currently, the active episode is passing over. At the Budkov observatory,
the local K-index did not exceed K=4 to midday of Central European time.
Tomorrow, Aug 4, we expect still unsettled conditions.
Next days, 5-10, we expect at most quiet to unsettled conditions. At the
end of forecasted week, active episode is possible.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period August 5 – August 31, 2016

Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on August 13 – 14, 23, 27 – 28
mostly quiet on August 22
quiet to unsettled on August 5, 9, 11 – 12, 15, 18, 24, 31
quiet to active on August 6, 10, 20, 25 – 26, 30
active to disturbed on August 7 – 8, (16 – 17, 21,) 29

Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected
on August 5 – 8 (- 9), 14, 22 – 23, 29 – 30

Remark:
– Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH
Czech Propagation Interested Group
(OK1HH & OK1MGW, weekly forecasts since 1978)
e-mail: ok1hh(at)rsys.cz

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