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Propagation outlook from Boulder

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Dec 18 0340 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 – 17 December 2017

Solar activity was quiet throughout the entire reporting period. The
strongest event was a B6 flare from a plage region on the E. limb at
11/0052 UTC. A filament was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery lifting
off of the SE quadrant, near S25E47, at approximately 15/1229 UTC.
The event was modeled using WSA/Enlil which suggested the potential
for the periphery of the CME to become geoeffective around 19 Dec.
No additional Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to high levels on 11 and 17 Dec, normal to moderate levels
were observed on 12 and 13 Dec and moderate levels were observed on
14-16 Dec. A maximum flux of 2,300 pfu was observed at 11/0000 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor), mostly
due to CH HSS influence, during the reporting period. Quiet levels
were observed on 15-16 Dec; quiet to unsettled levels were observed
on 11 and 13-14 Dec; quiet to active levels were observed on 12 Dec;
the peak levels of quiet to G1 (Minor) levels were observed 17 Dec.

FORECAST OF SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY 18 DEC 2017 – 13 JAN 2018

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the
forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach moderate levels on 18 Dec, 22 Dec – 01 Jan, and
07-13 Jan; high levels are likely on 19-21 Dec and 02-06 Jan. All
increases in electron flux are anticipated due to the expected
influence of recurrent CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm
levels on 18-19 Dec, 01 Jan, and 13 Jan. Active conditions are
likely on 20 Dec, 27 Dec, 02 Jan, and 08 Jan. Unsettled levels are
likely on 21-22 Dec, 28 Dec, 31 Dec, 03 Jan and 09 Jan. All
elevations in geomagnetic field activity are anticipated from
multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the forecast period is
expected to observe quiet conditions.

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Dec 18 0340 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2017-12-18
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2017 Dec 18 72 22 5
2017 Dec 19 72 20 5
2017 Dec 20 72 16 4
2017 Dec 21 72 10 3
2017 Dec 22 72 8 3
2017 Dec 23 72 5 2
2017 Dec 24 74 5 2
2017 Dec 25 74 5 2
2017 Dec 26 74 5 2
2017 Dec 27 74 12 4
2017 Dec 28 74 8 3
2017 Dec 29 74 5 2
2017 Dec 30 74 5 2
2017 Dec 31 74 10 3
2018 Jan 01 74 25 5
2018 Jan 02 76 15 4
2018 Jan 03 76 10 3
2018 Jan 04 76 5 2
2018 Jan 05 76 5 2
2018 Jan 06 74 5 2
2018 Jan 07 74 10 3
2018 Jan 08 74 12 4
2018 Jan 09 74 8 3
2018 Jan 10 74 5 2
2018 Jan 11 74 5 2
2018 Jan 12 74 5 2
2018 Jan 13 74 22 5
(SWPC via DXLD)

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