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Propagation outlook from Boulder

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2018 Nov 19 0314 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 – 18 November 2018

Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2726 (N05, L=137,
class/area Axx/010 on 13 Nov) was inactive and decayed to plage 15
Nov. Region 2727 (N01, L=112, class/area Cao/060 on 18 Nov) showed
slight growth, but remained inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 12-16 Nov and moderate levels on 17-18 Nov.

Geomagnetic field activity was at predominately quiet levels, with a
isolated periods of unsettled conditions observed early on 12 Nov.
Solar wind speeds were elevated 12-13 Nov due to a negative polarity
CH HSS. Peak speeds of 638 km/s occurred on 12 Nov at approximately
1936 UTC, and decreased over the course of the week, reaching a
minimum of 298 km/s by 17/2326 UTC. 14-17 Nov were unremarkable
under a nominal solar wind regime. The solar wind environment
underwent a slight enhancement on 18 Nov due to CIR arrival ahead of
a negative polarity CH. Total field became enhanced to 8 nT and the
Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection of -8 nT by the end
of the day. Wind speeds increased to around 330 km/s and density
increased to a peak of 20 particles per cubic cm.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 November-15 December 2018

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the
forecast period (19 Nov-15 Dec). Region 2727 (N05, L=137) will exit
the solar disk on 21 Nov, and pending decay, is due to return on 04
Dec.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to remain at moderate levels 19 Nov-1 Dec. Predominately
high levels are likely 2 Dec-13 Dec due to a pair of recurrent CH
HSSs. Moderate levels are likely 14-15 Dec as CH HSS influence
wanes.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly unsettled
levels 19-22 Nov due to a pair of negative polarity CH HSSs.
Predominately quiet levels are expected 23-30 Nov under nominal
solar wind conditions. Active conditions are expected on 01 Dec due
to a SSBC ahead of a recurrent positive polarity CH. G1 (Minor)
storming is likely 02 Dec due to the CIR in advance of the HSS of
the aforementioned positive polarity CH. Unsettled conditions are
expected 03-06 Dec as CH HSS influence wanes. Active conditons are
likely 07-08 Dec due to HSS influence from a recurrent, negative
polarity CH. Mostly unsettled conditions, with a chance of active
intervals, is expected 09 Dec as the negative polarity CH HSS
influence wanes. Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of
the period.

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2018 Nov 19 0314 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2018-11-19
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2018 Nov 19 72 8 3
2018 Nov 20 72 8 3
2018 Nov 21 71 10 3
2018 Nov 22 68 8 3
2018 Nov 23 68 5 2
2018 Nov 24 68 5 2
2018 Nov 25 68 5 2
2018 Nov 26 68 5 2
2018 Nov 27 68 5 2
2018 Nov 28 68 5 2
2018 Nov 29 68 5 2
2018 Nov 30 68 5 2
2018 Dec 01 68 15 4
2018 Dec 02 68 30 5
2018 Dec 03 69 10 3
2018 Dec 04 70 10 3
2018 Dec 05 71 8 3
2018 Dec 06 71 8 3
2018 Dec 07 71 12 4
2018 Dec 08 71 12 4
2018 Dec 09 71 8 3
2018 Dec 10 71 5 2
2018 Dec 11 71 5 2
2018 Dec 12 71 5 2
2018 Dec 13 71 5 2
2018 Dec 14 71 5 2
2018 Dec 15 71 5 2
(SWPC via DXLD)

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