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Propagation outlook from Boulder

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2018 Dec 03 0309 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
26 November – 02 December 2018

Solar activity was very low. GONG and SDO imagery displayed a 17
degree long filament eruption between 30/0214-0603 UTC. The filament
was centered near S56W09. Two subsequent CME signatures were
observed in coronagraph imagery. Analysis and modeling suggested an
Earth-directed component was present despite most of the ejecta
moving south of the ecliptic place. Arrival of the slow-moving
transient is expected on 05 Dec.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal background levels throughout the reporting period.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active. Quiet
conditions increased to unsettled on 01-02 Dec, with an isolated
period of active observed at the end of 02 Dec, due to the onset of
a positive polarity CH HSS. Enhancements from the CIR increased Bt
to a maximum of 10 nT on 01 Dec and wind speeds peaked at 460 km/s
on 02 Dec. Nominal solar wind produced quiet conditions over the
remainder of the reporting period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
03 December – 29 December 2018

Solar activity is expected to remain very low over the outlook
period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to range from normal to high levels. High levels are
expected on 03-04 Dec and 07-12 Dec; moderate levels are expected on
06 Dec and 14-16 Dec; normal background levels are expected on 05
Dec and 17-19 Dec. All enhancements in are anticipated in response
to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active
levels. Active levels are expected on 03-05 Dec and 29 Dec;
unsettled levels are expected on 06-09 Dec, 17-19 Dec and 28 Dec;
quiet levels are expected over the remainder of the period. All
enhancements in geomagnetic field activity are anticipated in
response to multiple, recurrent, CH HSSs, with the exception of 05
Dec, when a slow-moving transient is likely to pass Earth.

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2018 Dec 03 0309 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2018-12-03
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2018 Dec 03      68          12          4
2018 Dec 04      68          10          4
2018 Dec 05      68          12          4
2018 Dec 06      68           8          3
2018 Dec 07      68           8          3
2018 Dec 08      68           8          3
2018 Dec 09      68           8          3
2018 Dec 10      68           5          2
2018 Dec 11      68           5          2
2018 Dec 12      68           5          2
2018 Dec 13      68           5          2
2018 Dec 14      68           5          2
2018 Dec 15      68           5          2
2018 Dec 16      68           5          2
2018 Dec 17      68           8          3
2018 Dec 18      68           8          3
2018 Dec 19      68           5          2
2018 Dec 20      68           5          2
2018 Dec 21      68           5          2
2018 Dec 22      68           5          2
2018 Dec 23      68           5          2
2018 Dec 24      68           5          2
2018 Dec 25      68           5          2
2018 Dec 26      68           5          2
2018 Dec 27      68           5          2
2018 Dec 28      68           8          3
2018 Dec 29      68          12          4
(SWPC via DXLD)

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