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Propagation outlook from Boulder

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2019 Mar 11 0238 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
04 – 10 March 2019

Solar activity reached low levels. Region 2734 (N09, Lo=60,
class/area Cao/20 on 07 Mar) produced the strongest flare of the
period, a C1 at 08/0319 UTC followed by a secondary X-ray
enhancement to C1, which peaked shortly after. Two separate CME
signatures, a western directed CME first seen in LASCO C2 at 08/0428
UTC and an eastern directed CME first seen in LASCO C2 at 08/0438
UTC, were associated with the C1 flare activity. No other
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
The region produced two other weaker B class flares during the
period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels throughout the highlight period due to influence from a
negative polarity CH HSS prior to the period combined with influence
from a second negative polarity CH HSS on 06 and 07 Mar.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled
conditions. Intermittent increases to unsettled periods occurred on
04 Mar, and 06-08 Mar due to slight enhancements in the solar wind
environment and CH HSS effects.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
11 March – 06 April 2019

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels
throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to range from normal to very high levels. Very high levels
are expected on 29/30 Mar; high levels are expected on 11 Mar, 14-19
Mar, 27-28 Mar, and 31 Mar – 06 Apr; moderate levels are expected on
12/13 Mar and 20-22 Mar; mostly normal levels are expected 23-26
Mar. All elevated levels of electron flux are anticipated due to
influence from multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1
(Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 conditions are expected 11 Mar
due to possible glancing blows from the 8 Mar CMEs. Active
conditions are expected 12 Mar – 15 Mar due to waning CME activity
followed by HSS effects from a negative polarity CH. Unsettled to
quiet conditions are expected 16-17 Mar as CH effects wane.

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2019 Mar 11 0238 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2019-03-11
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2019 Mar 11 71 30 5
2019 Mar 12 71 18 4
2019 Mar 13 70 18 4
2019 Mar 14 69 15 4
2019 Mar 15 69 12 4
2019 Mar 16 69 8 3
2019 Mar 17 69 5 2
2019 Mar 18 69 5 2
2019 Mar 19 69 5 2
2019 Mar 20 69 10 3
2019 Mar 21 69 5 2
2019 Mar 22 69 5 2
2019 Mar 23 69 5 2
2019 Mar 24 69 5 2
2019 Mar 25 69 5 2
2019 Mar 26 69 12 4
2019 Mar 27 69 30 5
2019 Mar 28 69 28 5
2019 Mar 29 70 14 4
2019 Mar 30 71 8 3
2019 Mar 31 71 5 2
2019 Apr 01 71 5 2
2019 Apr 02 71 8 3
2019 Apr 03 71 8 3
2019 Apr 04 71 5 2
2019 Apr 05 71 5 2
2019 Apr 06 71 5 2
(SWPC via DXLD)

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