domenica 22 Settembre 2019
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The K7RA Solar Update

We saw zero sunspots from April 21 through May 2, but on May 3 sunspots returned. Average daily sunspot number rose from zero last week to 16.1 this week, and average daily solar flux increased as well, from 67.5 to 73.5.

Both the average middle latitude and planetary A index this week were 6.6, and last week those numbers were 4.7 and 5.9 respectively.

Predicted solar flux is 75 on May 10-11, 73 on May 12-15, 74 and 76 on May 16-17, 72 on May 18-20, 68 on May 21-22, 67 on May 23-26, then 69, 68, 69, 70 and 72 on May 27-31, 75 on June 1, 76 on June 2-13, 72 on June 14-16, 68 on June 17-18, 67 on June 19-22 and 69 on June 23.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on May 10, 14 and 12 on May 11-12, 5 on May 13-19, 8 on May 20, 5 on May 21-27, then 10, 12, 8 and 10 on May 28-31, then 5, 12 and 14 on June 1-3, 8 on June 4-6, 5 on June 7-15, 8 on June 16, and 5 on June 17-23.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period May 10 until June 5, 2019 from F.K. Janda OK1HH.

Geomagnetic field will be:

Quiet on May 10, 18-19, 22-23, 26-27

Quiet to unsettled on May 13-17, 21, 24-25, June 1-5

Quiet to active on May 11-12, 30

Unsettled to active on May 20, 28-29, 31

Active to disturbed-none

Solar wind will intensify on May (10,) 11-12, 14, (20,) 21-23, 29-31, June 1.

Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

Jeff Hartley, N8II, in West Virginia wrote on May 4: “We are in a bit of a funk waiting for sporadic E to improve. Starting around 1900Z last Saturday and Sunday April 27-28, 20 meters began closing to north Florida in the Florida QSO Party and was completely closed by 2200Z. Then some sporadic E appeared and 20 was open to most of Florida from around 2345Z-0145Z. On 40 meters, there was no skip zone, so the callers from everywhere drowned out the Florida mobiles they were calling.

“Due to the higher MUF, the mobiles were also weaker than normal on 40 meters Saturday evening, but fixed stations were still pretty loud.

“Today, May 4, is the 7th call area QSO Party. Twenty meters did not open well until about 1415Z and signals were good until around 1700Z, after which they were much weaker and absolutely nothing was heard on 15 meters. They were the worst 7 area QSO Party conditions that I can remember.

“Most evenings around 2100-2300Z, 20 meters is wide open to southern Europe (many S9+ signals) despite the low SFI, but all DX signals are pretty weak by 1300Z almost every morning.”

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