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Propagation outlook from Boulder

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2019 May 13 0226 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
06 – 12 May 2019

Solar activity was at low levels on 06, 07, and 09 May due to
C-class flare activity from Region 2740 (N08, L=307 class/area
Dho/280 on 05 May. The largest of the flares was a C9.9/1N at
06/0510 UTC. Mutliple eruptions were observed in coronagraph
imagery, but only the halo CME from 06 May was geoeffective. The
assymetric halo CME was first observed in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at
06/2348 UTC. Additionally, a partial halo CME was first observed in
LASCO C2 imagery at 12/2036 UTC and is determined to be
Earth-directed and arrive at Earth on 17 May. Solar activity was at
very low levels for the remainder of the summary period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 07, 11, and 12 May. Normal to moderate levels were
observed throughout the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity reached active to G1 (Minor) storm levels
on 11 May due to the arrival of a CME from 06 May. Impact was first
observed by the DSCOVR spacecraft at 10/1655 UTC. Total reached a
peak of 12 nT and Bz reached a maximum southward deflection of -11
nT. Solar wind averaged near 350 km/s throughout tranient passage.
G1 (Minor) storm levels were observed during the 11/00-03 UTC
synoptic period, with several active periods during the remainder of
the UT day. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed for the
remainder of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
13 May – 08 June 2019

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a slight
chance of C-class flares throughout the period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at moderate to high levels on 13-23 May, and 29 May –
08 June. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 24-28 May.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm
levels on 15 and 17 May due to CME arrival. Active conditions are
expected on 29 May due to the influence of a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for
the remainder of the period.

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2019 May 13 0226 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2019-05-13
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2019 May 13 76 5 2
2019 May 14 76 5 2
2019 May 15 76 5 2
2019 May 16 76 5 2
2019 May 17 76 5 2
2019 May 18 72 5 2
2019 May 19 72 5 2
2019 May 20 72 8 3
2019 May 21 68 5 2
2019 May 22 68 5 2
2019 May 23 67 5 2
2019 May 24 67 5 2
2019 May 25 67 5 2
2019 May 26 67 5 2
2019 May 27 69 5 2
2019 May 28 68 10 3
2019 May 29 69 12 4
2019 May 30 70 8 3
2019 May 31 72 10 3
2019 Jun 01 74 5 2
2019 Jun 02 76 5 2
2019 Jun 03 77 5 2
2019 Jun 04 77 5 2
2019 Jun 05 77 5 2
2019 Jun 06 77 5 2
2019 Jun 07 77 5 2
2019 Jun 08 77 5 2
(SWPC via DXLD)

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