A new sunspot from old Cycle 24 appeared on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week, then by Thursday was gone.
The sunspot number was 11 on both days, the minimum non-zero sunspot number.
Average daily solar flux rose only slightly from 67.3 to 67.6. Geomagnetic indices were higher. Average planetary A index rose from 5.4 to 14.4, and average mid-latitude A index increased from 4.6 to 11.
Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 68 on every day, October 4 through November 17.
Over the same period predicted planetary A index is 8 on October 4-5, 5 on October 6-7, then 8, 10, 5, 5, 8 and 12 on October 8-13, 8 on October 14-15, 5 on October 16-20, then 12, 5 and 5 on October 21-23, then 18, 25, 12 and 10 on October 24-27, then 8, 8 and 12 on October 28-30, and again 8, 8 and 12 on October 31 through November 2, then 5 on November 3-5, then 8, 5, 8, 10, 8 and 8 on November 6-11, 5 on November 12-16 and 12 on November 17.
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 04-October 29, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.
Geomagnetic field will be
Quiet on: October 8, 16-17, 29
Quiet to unsettled on: October 4-5, 7, 9, 20, 23
Quiet to active on: October 6, 10-11, 15, 18-19, 22, 27-28
Unsettled to active on: October (12-14,) 21, 26
Active to disturbed: October 24-25
Solar wind will intensify on: September 27-30, October 1 (-4,
7-9,) 11 (-14,) 21-26
Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
The predictability of changes remains lower
On October 2, Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW, of Easton, Pennsylvania wrote: “To my surprise, due to its rarity, double-hop Sporadic-e was active on the 11-meter Citizens Band yesterday afternoon, Tuesday, October 1 from 12 noon to 2 pm eastern local time.
“Eight days past the autumnal equinox, and the unexpected happens inside the northern wedge of the Bermuda Triangle, which is the mid-point path over the Sargasso Sea in the western Atlantic Ocean. It (Es) turned on like a switch with no warning.
“The Es was being funneled in from Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic in the northern Caribbean Sea. Dominican Republic is 1,567 air miles and Puerto Rico is 1,629 air miles from my location. The typical maximum single-hop Es range is 1,400 miles. Both exceeded this limit; thus, this was a double-hop event that occurred.
“At 12:30 pm, readable with practically no difficulty (4), strength at good signals (6). Backscatter was heard from Pennsylvania and New York states calling stations at 1:19 pm.”
Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, writes: “After spending far too long with a spotless Sun, our favorite star finally brings some bright regions back into Earth-view. The emergence of several of these, including one that has officially been designated a sunspot (region 2749), has brought some much-needed smiles to many in this community– including me. Already we have had about 200 days without any sunspots this year, which is about as deep as solar minimum gets. Is anyone as ready as I am for a change?
“As for the forecast this week, we are expecting some fast solar wind to hit over the next few days as a southern coronal hole rotates through the Earth-strike zone. This could bring aurora to high latitudes, possibly through the weekend, but aurora photographers at mid-latitudes should expect shows to be sporadic and elusive. As for emergency and amateur radio, this storm might boost radio propagation a bit, especially on Earth’s night side. Improved trans-equatorial propagation might also occur near the gray line (which means there might be some good radio contacts between the northern and southern hemisphere during the dawn and dusk hours) as these conditions will likely be enhanced by the weak solar storm.
“Of course, the increased solar activity this week may fizzle as fast as it started. It’s way too early to wish for big solar flares from a yet-to-be-seen Solar Cycle 25. But the return of bright regions on Earth’s dayside is a nice gift. If nothing else, they make for a colorful backdrop while we wait for the weather to change.”
Here is her latest video: https://youtu.be/j930BODV_bg
An update from SpaceRef: Application of Synoptic Magnetograms to Global Solar Activity Forecast
If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at email@example.com.
For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/
Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
Sunspot numbers for September 26 through October 2, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 11, and 11, with a mean of 3.1. 10.7 cm flux was 67.1, 66.4, 67.3, 67.4, 67.9, 68.7, and 68.3, with a mean of 67.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 21, 27, 13, 15, 13, and 8, with a mean of 14.4. Middle latitude A index was 2, 15, 21, 10, 11, 11, and 7, with a mean of 11.