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Propagation outlook from SWPC

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2021 Feb 15 0206 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
08 – 14 February 2021

Solar activity was very low. A B5 flare was observed on 10/1206 UTC
from a region of plage in the SE quadrant. The visible disk remained
spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels over 08-14 Feb. A peak flux of 434 pfu was
observed on 11/1615 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Weak
influence from a positive polarity CH HSS was observed on 08 Feb.
Quiet conditions followed nominal solar wind from 09-11 Feb.
Unsettled conditions were observed on 12 Feb and active conditions
on 13 Feb in response to the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS.
Wind speeds briefly reached ~550 km/s early on 13 Feb and total
magnetic field strength peaked at 15 nT while Bz reached a maximum
southward deflection of -14 nT at 13/0216 UTC. Quiet conditions
returned on 14 Feb as total magnetic field strength and solar wind
speeds waned.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
15 February – 13 March 2021

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook
period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to range from normal to high levels. High levels are likely
on 22-26 Feb and 02-04 Mar in response to CH HSS activity. Normal to
moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook
period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels. G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on 01
Mar; active conditions are likely on 21-22 Feb, 02 Mar, 06 Mar and
12-13 Mar; unsettled conditions are likely on 15-16 Feb, 23 Feb and
03 Mar. All enhancements in geomagnetic activity are in response to
multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is
expected to be quiet.

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2021 Feb 15 0206 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2021-02-15
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2021 Feb 15 71 8 3
2021 Feb 16 71 8 3
2021 Feb 17 71 5 2
2021 Feb 18 71 5 2
2021 Feb 19 71 5 2
2021 Feb 20 71 5 2
2021 Feb 21 71 12 4
2021 Feb 22 72 12 4
2021 Feb 23 72 10 3
2021 Feb 24 76 5 2
2021 Feb 25 76 5 2
2021 Feb 26 74 5 2
2021 Feb 27 73 5 2
2021 Feb 28 74 5 2
2021 Mar 01 73 18 5
2021 Mar 02 74 15 4
2021 Mar 03 74 8 3
2021 Mar 04 73 5 2
2021 Mar 05 73 5 2
2021 Mar 06 73 15 4
2021 Mar 07 74 5 2
2021 Mar 08 70 5 2
2021 Mar 09 74 5 2
2021 Mar 10 76 5 2
2021 Mar 11 72 5 2
2021 Mar 12 71 18 4
2021 Mar 13 72 10 4

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