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Propagation outlook from SWPC

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2021 Mar 01 0255 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
22 – 28 February 2021

Solar activity reached low levels with C-class flare activity.
Region 2804 (N21, L=309, class/area=Dso/190 on 27 Feb) produced the
only two C-class flares observed this period. The first was a C2/Sf
flare oberseved at 27/1800 UTC and the second was a C3/Sf flare
observed at 28/0646 UTC. Both C-class flares were associated with
narrow CME signatures that were directed away from the Sun-Earth
line.

A CME associated with a filament eruption in the SE quadrant on
20/1200 UTC (in LASCO C2 imagery) arrived in conjunction with
coronal hole/high speed stream influences, with the effects of both
features observed over 24-26 Feb.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
moderate on 25 Feb, and high throughout the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet on 27 Feb and quiet to
unsettled on 26 and 28 Feb. Quiet to active conditions were observed
on 22-26 Feb due to a combination of negative polarity CH HSS
influence and the arrival of the 20 Feb CME.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
01 March – 27 March 2021

Solar activity is expected to be very low-to-low throughout the
outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be moderate on 10-19 Mar. High levels are expected on
01-09, and 20-27 Mar.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 02,
06, 12-13, 15, and 21-22 Mar, with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
conditions likely on 02 and 18-19 Mar, all due to recurrent CH HSSs.
Mostly quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to
prevail throughout the outlook period.

{NOTE: following part not yet updated from last week,
as of 1534 UT March 1 – look for it at:}

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/27-day-outlook-107-cm-radio-flux-and-geomagnetic-indices

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2021 Feb 22 0158 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2021-02-22
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2021 Feb 22 75 10 4
2021 Feb 23 75 12 4
2021 Feb 24 75 12 4
2021 Feb 25 75 8 3
2021 Feb 26 75 5 2
2021 Feb 27 75 5 2
2021 Feb 28 75 5 2
2021 Mar 01 73 18 5
2021 Mar 02 74 15 4
2021 Mar 03 74 8 3
2021 Mar 04 73 5 2
2021 Mar 05 73 5 2
2021 Mar 06 73 15 4
2021 Mar 07 74 5 2
2021 Mar 08 70 5 2
2021 Mar 09 74 5 2
2021 Mar 10 76 5 2
2021 Mar 11 72 5 2
2021 Mar 12 71 15 4
2021 Mar 13 72 10 4
2021 Mar 14 70 5 2
2021 Mar 15 71 15 4
2021 Mar 16 72 8 3
2021 Mar 17 71 5 2
2021 Mar 18 73 18 5
2021 Mar 19 76 20 5
2021 Mar 20 75 20 4

 

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2021 Mar 01 1603 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2021-03-01
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2021 Mar 01 73 18 5
2021 Mar 02 74 15 4
2021 Mar 03 74 8 3
2021 Mar 04 73 5 2
2021 Mar 05 73 5 2
2021 Mar 06 73 15 4
2021 Mar 07 74 5 2
2021 Mar 08 70 5 2
2021 Mar 09 74 5 2
2021 Mar 10 76 5 2
2021 Mar 11 72 5 2
2021 Mar 12 71 15 4
2021 Mar 13 72 10 4
2021 Mar 14 70 5 2
2021 Mar 15 71 15 4
2021 Mar 16 72 8 3
2021 Mar 17 71 5 2
2021 Mar 18 73 18 5
2021 Mar 19 76 20 5
2021 Mar 20 75 20 4
2021 Mar 21 76 18 4
2021 Mar 22 78 12 3
2021 Mar 23 81 8 3
2021 Mar 24 80 5 2
2021 Mar 25 80 5 2
2021 Mar 26 79 5 2
2021 Mar 27 78 5 2

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