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Propagation outlook from SWPC Boulder

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2021 May 03 0219 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
26 April – 02 May 2021

Solar activity was reached low levels on 26 Apr. A C1 flare from
Region 2816 (S24, L=262, class/area Dai/120 on 19 Apr) at 26/0230
UTC was the largest of the period. A DSF was also observed on 26
Apr, lifting off around 26/1635 UTC. Most of the ejecta appears to
have been headed to the SW of Earth's orbit, though the lack of
available STEREO-A coronagraph imagery increased uncertainty around
determining if an Earth-directed component was present. All of the
other active regions were in decay and mostly quiet as they rotated
towards the western limb. Only low-level B-class activity was
observed over 27 Apr – 02 May.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
mostly normal to moderate with the exception of a brief high level
(peak flux of 1,810 pfu reached at 30/1550 UTC) reached on 30 Apr.

Geomagnetic field activity range from quiet to G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels. G1 (Minor) levels were observed on 26 Apr
in response to enhancements from a CME that left the Sun on 22 Apr.
Total magnetic field strength was weakly enhanced reaching 7 nT
while Bz was sustained southward to -7 nT. Solar wind speeds were
steadily elevated to speeds between ~480-500 km/s prior the G1
event. Geomagnetic conditions would decrease to quiet – unsettled
levels on 27 Apr and into quiet over 28 Apr – 01 May as solar wind
parameters returned to nominal levels. A slight increase to
unsettled conditions was observed on 02 May due to what appears to
be influence from the current sheet with a possible embedded weak
transient.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
03 May – 29 May 2021

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the
outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels from 03-13 May and 25-29
May. High levels are likely on 14-24 May in response to multiple,
recurrent, negative polarity CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G2
(Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
levels on 13 May are likely to increase to G2 (Moderate) levels on
14 May. Active conditions are likely on 03-04 May, 12 May, 15-17 May
and 20 May. Unsettled levels are likely on 05 May, 11 May, and 21
May. All anticipated elevations in geomagnetic activity are in
response to influence from recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the
outlook period is expected to at quiet levels.

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2021 May 03 0219 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2021-05-03
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2021 May 03 70 12 4
2021 May 04 70 12 4
2021 May 05 72 10 3
2021 May 06 72 5 2
2021 May 07 72 5 2
2021 May 08 72 5 2
2021 May 09 74 5 2
2021 May 10 74 5 2
2021 May 11 74 8 3
2021 May 12 75 12 4
2021 May 13 75 20 5
2021 May 14 77 30 6
2021 May 15 79 15 4
2021 May 16 79 15 4
2021 May 17 79 12 4
2021 May 18 77 5 2
2021 May 19 77 5 2
2021 May 20 77 15 4
2021 May 21 77 10 3
2021 May 22 75 5 2
2021 May 23 75 5 2
2021 May 24 75 5 2
2021 May 25 74 5 2
2021 May 26 74 5 2
2021 May 27 72 5 2
2021 May 28 70 5 2
2021 May 29 70 5 2

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Propagation outlook from SWPC Boulder

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