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Propagation outlook from SWPC Boulder

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2021 May 17 0116 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
10 – 16 May 2021

Solar activity was very low on 10-11, 13-16 May. Low levels were
observed on 12 May due to an isolated C1/Sf flare from Region 2822
at 12/0935 UTC. Region 2822 (N18, L=335, class/area=Dao/190 on 12
May) was the most complex and active region this period, and was the
source of an Earth-directed CME observed on 09 May, which arrived at
Earth on 12 May. Coronal dimming in the vicinity of Region 2822 on
13 May was associated with another Earth-directed CME which is
anticipated to arrive at Earth on 18 May. Region 2823 (S22, L=329,
class/area=Cso/40 on 12 May) was quiet throughout the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
normal to moderate throughout the period.

Geomagnetic field activity reach G3 (strong) geomagnetic storm
levels between 1200-1800 UTC on 12 May due to effects from the 09
May CME. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on 15 May, and
quiet conditions were observed throughout the remainder of the week.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
17 May – 12 June 2021

Solar activity is expected to be very low-to-low throughout the
outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 19-24 May. Normal to moderate flux
levels are expected to persist throughout the remainder of the
period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 17
May due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. Active conditions to
G1 (Minor) storm levels are expects on 18 May due to continued CH
HSS influence and the effects of the 13 May CME. Active conditions
are expected on 19 May due to diminishing CH HSS influence and CME
effects. Predominately quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2021 May 17 0116 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2021-05-17
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2021 May 17 73 12 4
2021 May 18 77 18 5
2021 May 19 77 20 4
2021 May 20 75 12 3
2021 May 21 75 8 3
2021 May 22 75 5 2
2021 May 23 75 5 2
2021 May 24 75 5 2
2021 May 25 75 5 2
2021 May 26 75 5 2
2021 May 27 75 5 2
2021 May 28 75 5 2
2021 May 29 75 5 2
2021 May 30 75 5 2
2021 May 31 75 5 2
2021 Jun 01 77 5 2
2021 Jun 02 78 5 2
2021 Jun 03 78 5 2
2021 Jun 04 78 5 2
2021 Jun 05 78 5 2
2021 Jun 06 78 5 2
2021 Jun 07 78 5 2
2021 Jun 08 78 5 2
2021 Jun 09 78 5 2
2021 Jun 10 78 5 2
2021 Jun 11 78 8 3
2021 Jun 12 78 5 2

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