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Propagation outlook from SWPC Boulder

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2021 Aug 30 0211 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
23 – 29 August 2021

Solar activity was at moderate levels. An approximate 40 degree
eruptive filament was observed on 23 Aug with an associated CME
first visible in C2 LASCO imagery at 23/0648 UTC. Region 2859 (N16,
L=11, class/area Dso/50 on 26 Aug) produced a C3.0 flare on 26/1818
UTC. A partial HALO CME associated with this event was observed in
LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 26/1900 UTC. This event was modeled
and expected to impact Earth on 30 Aug. Region 2860 (S29, L=01,
class/area Eki/340 on 28 Aug) produced an M4.7 flare at 28/0611 UTC
along with numerous C-class events. The M4 event was accompanied by
a 1 Normal optical flare and Type II radio emission (276 km/s). A
partial HALO CME was observed in coronagraph imagery in association
with this event beginning near 28/0648 UTC. This event was modeled
with an arrival on 01 Sep.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 28-29 Aug most likely due to influences from a CME
from 23 Aug. Normal to moderate levels were observed for the
remainder of the highlight period.

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1-Minor storm levels on 28 Aug,
and active levels on 27 Aug most likely due to influences from the
23 Aug CME. Total field reached 16 nT and Bz was at a negative 10-15
nT for several hours after CME arrival. The rest of the highlight
period was at quiet to unsettled levels with a nominal solar wind.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
30 August – 25 September 2021

Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels from 30 Aug – 03
Sep with Region 2860 rotating off the visible disk on 04 Sep.
Moderate levels are also likely on 16-25 Sep as Region 2860 rotates
back onto the visible disk. Very low levels are expected on 04-15
Sep.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at moderate to high levels on 30 Aug – 05 Sep due to
CME influences. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 06-25 Sep.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1-Minor storm
levels on 30 Aug and 01 Sep due to influences from the CMEs from 26
and 28 Aug, respectively. Unsettled to active levels are expected on
02-03 Sep, 11-12 Sep, and 21 Sep all due to recurrent CH HSS
influences. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the remainder
of the outlook period.

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2021 Aug 30 0211 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2021-08-30
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2021 Aug 30 90 25 5
2021 Aug 31 90 8 3
2021 Sep 01 90 18 5
2021 Sep 02 90 8 3
2021 Sep 03 90 12 4
2021 Sep 04 85 5 2
2021 Sep 05 82 5 2
2021 Sep 06 80 5 2
2021 Sep 07 80 5 2
2021 Sep 08 80 5 2
2021 Sep 09 80 5 2
2021 Sep 10 80 5 2
2021 Sep 11 80 10 3
2021 Sep 12 80 8 3
2021 Sep 13 80 5 2
2021 Sep 14 82 5 2
2021 Sep 15 85 5 2
2021 Sep 16 90 5 2
2021 Sep 17 90 5 2
2021 Sep 18 90 5 2
2021 Sep 19 90 5 2
2021 Sep 20 90 5 2
2021 Sep 21 90 8 3
2021 Sep 22 90 5 2
2021 Sep 23 90 5 2
2021 Sep 24 90 5 2
2021 Sep 25 90 5 2

:Product: Geophysical Alert Message wwv.txt
:Issued: 2021 Aug 30 1500 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
# Geophysical Alert Message
#
Solar-terrestrial indices for 29 August follow.
Solar flux 89 and estimated planetary A-index 8.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1500 UTC on 30 August was 2.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely.

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