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Propagation outlook from SWPC Boulder

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2021 Sep 20 0042 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
13 – 19 September 2021

Solar activity reached low levels. Region 2871 (S28, L=359,
class/area=Dao/60 on 19 Sep) produced four C-class flares throughout
the week, the largest of which was a C3 flare observed at 17/0420
UTC, and was the primary source of solar activity. A filament
eruption which lifted off at around 13/0100-0200 UTC and centered
near N35W15, produced an Earth-directed CME that arrived at Earth
early on 17 Sep.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
normal to moderate throughout the period.

Geomagnetic field activity reached active and G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
storm levels on 17 Sep, and active conditions early on 18 Sep, due
to the arrival of the 13 Sep CME. Quiet to unsettled conditions were
observed on 13 Sep, and quiet conditions were observed throughout
the remainder of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
20 September – 16 October 2021

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flare activity throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 29 Sep-03 Oct and 05-08 Oct. Normal
to moderate levels are expected to persist throughout the remainder
of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
storm levels on 28 Sep, with active conditions likely on 25, 29 Sep,
and 05, 10 Oct, due to the anticipated influence of multiple,
recurrent CH HSSs. Quiet to unsettled and mostly quiet conditions
are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook
period.

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2021 Sep 20 0042 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2021-09-20
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2021 Sep 20 75 5 2
2021 Sep 21 75 8 3
2021 Sep 22 75 8 3
2021 Sep 23 77 10 3
2021 Sep 24 80 8 3
2021 Sep 25 80 12 4
2021 Sep 26 82 10 3
2021 Sep 27 82 10 3
2021 Sep 28 82 15 5
2021 Sep 29 84 12 4
2021 Sep 30 84 10 3
2021 Oct 01 84 5 2
2021 Oct 02 84 5 2
2021 Oct 03 84 5 2
2021 Oct 04 84 8 3
2021 Oct 05 84 12 4
2021 Oct 06 82 5 2
2021 Oct 07 80 5 2
2021 Oct 08 80 5 2
2021 Oct 09 78 5 2
2021 Oct 10 78 12 4
2021 Oct 11 78 5 2
2021 Oct 12 75 5 2
2021 Oct 13 75 5 2
2021 Oct 14 75 5 2
2021 Oct 15 75 5 2
2021 Oct 16 75 5 2

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