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Propagation outlook from SWPC Boulder

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2021 Oct 25 0403 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
18 – 24 October 2021

Solar activity was very low. Background x-ray enhancement began on
20 Oct as new Regions 2886 (S19, L= 338, class/area Hsx/185 on 19
Oct) and 2887 (S25, L=278, class/area Dki/440 on 24 Oct) emerged
around the SE limb on 17 Oct and 21 Oct, respectively. Region 2886
was quiet and stable while Region 2887 produced the majority of the
B-class flare activity. The largest flare of the period was a B9.6
flare at 22/1838 UTC from a region just beyond the East limb. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 433 pfu at 18/1700
UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. The
period began under the influence of a weak transient with total
field reaching 13 nT and the Bz component reaching -8 nT late on 17
Oct. Solar wind speed ranged from 325-385 km/s during this time.
Slightly perturbed conditions continued on 19-20 Oct as a solar
sector boundary crossing followed by a co-rotating interaction
region preceded the onset of a negative polarity coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speed increased to 555 km/s early
on 21 Oct. Nominal solar wind conditions returned by midday on 23
Oct. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on
18-19 Oct, quiet to unsettled conditions on 20 Oct, and quiet levels
thereafter.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
25 October – 20 November 2021

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with a
slight chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on 25 Oct –
03 Nov as Region 2887 transits across the visible disk. Very low
levels are expected from 04 Nov -15 Nov. Very low to low levels are
expected again on 16-20 Nov with the return of Region 2887.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels throughout the forecast
period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on
27-30 Oct, 06-08 Nov, and 15-16 Nov and active levels on 06 Nov due
to CH HSS activity.

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2021 Oct 25 0403 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2021-10-25
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2021 Oct 25 94 5 2
2021 Oct 26 95 5 2
2021 Oct 27 95 8 3
2021 Oct 28 96 8 3
2021 Oct 29 95 10 3
2021 Oct 30 95 10 3
2021 Oct 31 95 5 2
2021 Nov 01 95 5 2
2021 Nov 02 95 5 2
2021 Nov 03 92 5 2
2021 Nov 04 90 5 2
2021 Nov 05 88 5 2
2021 Nov 06 86 12 4
2021 Nov 07 86 10 3
2021 Nov 08 85 8 3
2021 Nov 09 85 5 2
2021 Nov 10 83 5 2
2021 Nov 11 82 5 2
2021 Nov 12 82 5 2
2021 Nov 13 82 5 2
2021 Nov 14 82 5 2
2021 Nov 15 82 10 3
2021 Nov 16 85 8 3
2021 Nov 17 85 5 2
2021 Nov 18 85 5 2
2021 Nov 19 85 5 2
2021 Nov 20 85 5 2

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