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Propagation outlook from SWPC

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2021 Nov 29 0301 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
22 – 28 November 2021

Solar activity was at very low levels with only B-class activity
observed. The largest flare was a B8.4 at 28/0859 UTC from Region
2900 (S26, L=256, class/area, Dso/160 on 28 Nov). This was also the
most active region on the disk during the highlight period. Other
notable activity included an approximate 10 degree filament eruption
centered near S36E33 and observed in GONG H-alpha imagery beginning
at 24/0958 UTC. The associated CME was observed in LASCO coronagraph
imagery beginning at 24/1412 UTC. WSA/Enlil modelling indicated an
Earth-directed component with an arrival time of late on 27 Nov. No
other Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the highlight period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 23, 24 and 26 Nov due to CH HSS influences. Normal to
moderate levels were observed on 22, 25, 27 and 28 Nov.

Geomagnetic field activity reached unsettled levels on 22-23 Nov due
to influences from a negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled levels were
also reached on 27-28 Nov due to the arrival of the aforementioned
CME from 24 Nov. A relatively weak shock was observed near 27/2153
UTC causing enhancements in solar wind parameters. Total field
reached a maximum of 17 nT during the event at 28/0057 UTC, while
the Bz component reached a maximum southward deviation of -14 nT at
the same time. Solar wind speeds reached a maximum near 400 km/s.
Quiet levels were observed on 24-26 Nov with a nominal solar wind.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
29 November – 25 December 2021

Solar activity is expected to be very low to low throughout the
outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 10-12 Dec and 20-23 Dec due to
recurrent CH HSS influences. Normal to moderate levels are expected
for the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels early on 29 Nov due
to lingering influences from the 24 Nov CME. Unsettled to active
levels are expected on 03-05 Dec, 12-14 Dec, and 17-18 Dec due to
influences from recurrent CH HSS activity. Quiet to unsettled levels
are expected for the remainder of the period.

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2021 Nov 29 0301 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2021-11-29
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2021 Nov 29 92 10 3
2021 Nov 30 94 5 2
2021 Dec 01 94 5 2
2021 Dec 02 88 5 2
2021 Dec 03 88 10 3
2021 Dec 04 88 10 3
2021 Dec 05 88 8 3
2021 Dec 06 85 5 2
2021 Dec 07 82 5 2
2021 Dec 08 80 5 2
2021 Dec 09 82 5 2
2021 Dec 10 82 5 2
2021 Dec 11 82 5 2
2021 Dec 12 82 8 3
2021 Dec 13 80 12 4
2021 Dec 14 80 10 3
2021 Dec 15 85 5 2
2021 Dec 16 85 5 2
2021 Dec 17 85 8 3
2021 Dec 18 85 10 3
2021 Dec 19 85 5 2
2021 Dec 20 85 5 2
2021 Dec 21 85 5 2
2021 Dec 22 82 5 2
2021 Dec 23 80 5 2
2021 Dec 24 78 5 2
2021 Dec 25 78 5 2