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The K7RA Solar Update

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, reports: The Thanksgiving holiday and my hospitalization delayed the usual Friday Solar Update for November 26.

Average daily sunspot numbers for the November 18 – 24 reporting week were down by four points, from 30.9 to 26.9. Average daily solar flux went from 80.8 to 80.1.

Average daily planetary A index edged up from 7 to 7.9, and average daily middle latitude numbers rose from 4.9 to 5.4.

Predicted solar flux is 92, 94, and 94 on November 29 – December 1; 88 on December 2 – 6; 82 on December 7 – 8; 85 on December 9 – 11; 82 and 80 on December 12 – 13; 78 on December 14 – 20; 80 on December 21; 82 on December 22 – 26; 85 on December 27 – 30, and 82 on December 31 through January 4, 2022.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on November 29; 5 on November 30 – December 2; 10 on December 3 – 4; 8 on December 5 – 6; 5 on December 7 – 11; 8, 12, and 10 on December 12 – 14; 5 on December 15 – 16; 8, 10, and 10 on December 17 – 19; 5 on December 20 – 23; 10 and 8 on December 24 – 25, and 5 on December 26 – January 7.

Here is the geomagnetic activity forecast for November 26 – December 22 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. This will be his final report.

The geomagnetic field will be:

quiet on December 5, 10, 12
quiet to unsettled on December 9, 11
quiet to active on November 28 – 30, December 2, 6, 8
unsettled to active on November 26 – 27, December 3 – 4, 7, 15
active to disturbed on December 1, (13 – 14,) 16, 19, 21 – 22

Solar wind will intensify on November (29 – 30), December (1,) 2 – 4, 14 – 15, 29 – 5

Notes:

– Parentheses mean lower probability of activity enhancement.

– “[This is] my latest prediction of Earth’s magnetic field activity. Nothing like that existed 45 years ago, so I learned to compile predictions of the Earth’s magnetic field activity. Today we have relatively good forecasts from several places and, given my age, I can finally end this activity. Thank you for your attention.” — F.K. Janda, OK1HH

N4SO reports from the Alabama Gulf Coast (EM50tk:

“Frequency is 24.915, FT8 mode (WSJT-X ver 2.5.2 68dc11). Propagation is to the northeast, all with the same approximate bearing of 41° – 54, grids FN20, FM29, FM18, EM74, FM05, and EM84.

“On November 26, 0851 UTC, from N4SO by WZ7I (FN20kk83). Frequency: 24.915.993 MHz FT8, –17dB. Distance 1,015 miles, bearing 43°.

“0902 UTC, from N4SO by NA2R (FM29tn). Frequency: 24.915.917 MHz FT8, –9dB. Distance 1,010 miles, bearing 47°.

“RX at 0906 UTC, from N4SO by K1HTV (FM18ap). Frequency: 24.915.900 MHz FT8, –17 dB. Distance 819 miles, bearing 43°.”

Sunspot numbers for November 18 – 24 were 22, 22, 22, 22, 22, 39, and 39, with a mean of 26.9. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 81.8, 79, 79.6, 78.9, 78.3, 79.8, and 83.4, with a mean of 80.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 5, 10, 12, 9, 9, and 5, with a mean of 7.9. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 7, 8, 7, 7, and 3, with a mean of 5.4.

For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical Information Service, read “What the Numbers Mean…,” and check this propagation page by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio website.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are on the ARRL website.

Share your reports and observations. (arrl.org)