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Propagation outlook from SWPC Boulder

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 Jan 17 0208 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
10 – 16 January 2022

Solar activity ranged from very low to isolated moderate levels.
Very low to low levels were observed on 10-13 Jan with weak C-class
events observed from beyond the NE limb. An isolated R1 (Minor)
radio blackout event was observed from beyond the NE limb at 14/0203
UTC that peaked at M1. Additional weak C-class activity was observed
from this same unnumbered region on 14 Jan. Region 2925 (S34, L=008,
class/area Dso/240 on 05 Jan) produced a C4/1f at 14/1334 UTC. An
associated CME was observed off the SW limb with a potential
glancing blow expected at Earth on 17 Jan. Low level activity was
observed on 15 Jan from Region 2924 (S31, L=038, class/area Ehi/430
on 08 Jan) and Region 2932 (N31, L=245, class/area Cro/020 on 15
Jan). 16 Jan witnessed additional C-class activity from Region 2930
(N20, L=320, class/area Dso/100 on 16 Jan) and an LDE C2/Sf from
Region 2929. No additional Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. However,
there was a weak enhancement to 1.7 pfu observed at 15/2115 UTC,
possibly associated with shock passage from the 14 Jan CME.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was was
at moderate levels on 10-15 Jan and at high levels on 16 Jan with a
maximum flux of 2,280 pfu observed at 16/1910 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels on 10 Jan
through midday on 14 Jan. By midday to late on 14 Jan, activity
increased to unsettled to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels due
to a CIR in advance of a negative polarity CH HSS. Imbedded in this
activity was a possibly transient from an earlier, undetected CME.
Activity levels remained enhanced to G1 (Minor) storm levels on
15-16 Jan due to continued negative polarity CH HSS effects.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
17 January – 12 February 2022

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels, with a
slight chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts, on 17-21 Jan due to
the complexity of Region 2929. Very low to low levels are expected
on 22 Jan – 02 Feb. Very low to low levels, with a slight chance for
R1 (Minor) radio blackouts, is expected on 03-12 Feb with the
potential return of old Region 2929.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels on 17-23 Jan and again on 12 Feb due
to recurrent CH HSS influence. Normal to moderate levels are
expected on 24 Jan – 11 Feb.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels on
18, 24-26, 28-30 Jan, 05, 10 and 12 Feb, with active levels expected
on 17 Jan, 04, and 11 Feb, all due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jan 17 0208 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2022-01-17
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2022 Jan 17 115 18 4
2022 Jan 18 115 10 3
2022 Jan 19 110 5 2
2022 Jan 20 108 5 2
2022 Jan 21 106 5 2
2022 Jan 22 102 5 2
2022 Jan 23 102 5 2
2022 Jan 24 102 8 3
2022 Jan 25 102 8 3
2022 Jan 26 100 8 3
2022 Jan 27 100 5 2
2022 Jan 28 95 10 3
2022 Jan 29 90 10 3
2022 Jan 30 90 10 3
2022 Jan 31 95 5 2
2022 Feb 01 100 5 2
2022 Feb 02 105 5 2
2022 Feb 03 110 5 2
2022 Feb 04 110 15 5
2022 Feb 05 110 10 3
2022 Feb 06 110 5 2
2022 Feb 07 110 5 2
2022 Feb 08 110 5 2
2022 Feb 09 110 5 2
2022 Feb 10 110 12 4
2022 Feb 11 110 15 4
2022 Feb 12 110 12 4