domenica 26 Giugno 2022
Home > Propagazione > Propagation outlook from SWPC

Propagation outlook from SWPC

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 Jun 20 0240 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
13 – 19 June 2022

Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels. Low levels were
observed on 14-19 Jun with the majority of the C-class flares from
Regions 3030 (N18, L=117, class/area Dai/230 on 19 Jun), 3031 (S26,
L=130, class/area Eai/240 on 15 Jun), 3037 (S21, L=140, class/area
Csi/060 on 17 Jun) and 3038 (N15, L=053, class/area Dai/140 on 19
Jun). Moderate (R1-Minor) flare activity was observed on 13 and 16
Jun. Region 3032 (N21, L=106, class/area Dai/180 on 13 Jun) produced
an LDE, M3.4/1n event at 13/0407 UTC. Associated with this event
were Type II (325 km/s) and Type IV Sweep signatures, a 670 sfu
Tenflare and a CME signature analyzed with a potential arrival time
of early on 15 Jun. Region 3031 produced an M1.6 at 16/0353 UTC.
Other than the 13 Jun CME, no additional Earth-directed CMEs were
observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels on 13-17 Jun. High levels were reached on
18-19 Jun with a maximum flux reading of 2,950 pfu observed at
19/1735 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.
Unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms were observed on 13 Jun
due to positive polarity CH HSS influence. Mostly quiet levels were
observed on 14 Jun. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms were
observed on 15 Jun due to effects from the 13 Jun CME. 16 Jun saw
unsettled to active levels as CME effects continued. Unsettled to
active levels were observed on 17-19 Jun due to positive polarity CH
HSS influence. During the period, solar wind speeds ranged from a
low of near 440 km/s on 14 Jun to a high of near 650 km/s late on 17
Jun. Total field was at mostly 5-10 nT through the period with the
Bz component at mostly +/- 7 nT. The phi angle remained in a
predominately positive orientation.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
20 June – 16 July 2022

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels, with a
chance for further M-class flares on 20-24 Jun due to potential
flare activity from Regions 3031 and 3032.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be reach high levels on 20-22 Jun, 27 Jun – 02 Jul and
15-16 Jul due to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on
20 Jun, 23-26 Jun, 08-11 Jul and 14-16 Jul with active levels on 24
Jun due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jun 20 0240 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2022-06-20
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2022 Jun 20 138 10 3
2022 Jun 21 134 5 2
2022 Jun 22 125 5 2
2022 Jun 23 121 12 4
2022 Jun 24 118 18 5
2022 Jun 25 114 12 4
2022 Jun 26 105 10 3
2022 Jun 27 100 5 2
2022 Jun 28 100 5 2
2022 Jun 29 100 5 2
2022 Jun 30 100 5 2
2022 Jul 01 100 5 2
2022 Jul 02 100 5 2
2022 Jul 03 105 5 2
2022 Jul 04 110 5 2
2022 Jul 05 115 5 2
2022 Jul 06 120 5 2
2022 Jul 07 125 5 2
2022 Jul 08 130 8 3
2022 Jul 09 130 8 3
2022 Jul 10 135 12 4
2022 Jul 11 140 8 3
2022 Jul 12 140 5 2
2022 Jul 13 140 5 2
2022 Jul 14 140 12 4
2022 Jul 15 140 12 4
2022 Jul 16 140 12 4