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Propagation outlook from SWPC

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 Jul 11 0216 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
04 – 10 July 2022

Solar activity was at low levels all seven days of the period with
moderate levels observed on 08 Jul and 10 Jul. At 08/2049 UTC,
Region 3053 (N15, L=133, class/area Eko/700 on 08 Jul) produced an
M2.5 long duration event with a 230 sfu Tenflare and non
Earth-directed CME. At 10/2343 UTC, Region 3056 (S15, L=076,
class/area Cro/060 on 10 Jul) produced an M1.3 flare.

Additional significant activity during the period included a C8.5
flare observed at 09/1348 UTC from Region 3047 (S19, L=243,
class/area Cro/050 on 02 Jul) with a 828 km/s Type II Sweep and non
Earth-directed CME. This event also enhanced the 10 MeV proton flux
described in more detail below. Later on the 9th, at 2245 UTC,
Region 3052 (N15, L=153, class/area Cro/060 on 07 Jul) produced a
C4.6 flare with a non Earth-directed CME.

Overall, the period saw a total of 41 C-class and 2 M-class flares
with a majority of the C-class activity originating from Regions
3053 and 3056. All CME activity during the period was analyzed and
modeled as Earth misses.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
enhanced levels of 4.98 pfu at 09/1805 UTC following the C8.5 flare
from Region 3047 off the W limb. Levels decreased to background by
the end of 10 Jul.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate levels through the period with a peak flux of 336 pfu
observed at 05/1720 UTC..

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels
during the period. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels were
observed on 04 Jul due to effects from the 28 Jun CME. Quiet levels
were observed on 05 Jul through midday on 07 Jul. By midday on 07
Jul through 08 Jul, unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
conditions were observed due to effects from late 04 Jul CME. Quiet
to unsettled levels prevailed on 09-10 Jul.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
11 July – 06 August 2022

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for R1
(Minor) radio blackouts on 11-17 Jul and 30-31 Jul and 01-06 Aug,
due to potential flare activity from active and complex regions.
Very low to low levels are expected to prevail on 18-29 Jul.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels on 15-20 Jul and 24-30 Jul due to CH
HSS influence. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 11-14 Jul,
21-23 Jul, 31 Jul and 01-16 Aug.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels on
11-14 Jul, 22-25 Jul and 03-04 Aug with active intervals likely on
12-14 Jul, 22-24 Jul and 03 Aug and G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
levels likely on 13 Jul and 23 Jul, all due to recurrent CH HSS
activity.

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jul 11 0216 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2022-07-11
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2022 Jul 11 160 8 3
2022 Jul 12 155 15 4
2022 Jul 13 145 28 5
2022 Jul 14 135 12 4
2022 Jul 15 138 8 3
2022 Jul 16 138 8 3
2022 Jul 17 128 8 3
2022 Jul 18 125 8 3
2022 Jul 19 130 8 3
2022 Jul 20 130 8 3
2022 Jul 21 130 8 3
2022 Jul 22 135 15 4
2022 Jul 23 135 20 5
2022 Jul 24 135 12 4
2022 Jul 25 138 8 3
2022 Jul 26 148 8 3
2022 Jul 27 150 8 3
2022 Jul 28 150 8 3
2022 Jul 29 150 8 3
2022 Jul 30 160 8 3
2022 Jul 31 160 8 3
2022 Aug 01 160 8 3
2022 Aug 02 160 8 3
2022 Aug 03 160 12 4
2022 Aug 04 160 10 3
2022 Aug 05 160 8 3
2022 Aug 06 160 8 3

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