giovedì 6 Ottobre 2022
Breaking News
Home > Propagazione > Propagation outlook from SWPC

Propagation outlook from SWPC

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 Jul 25 0307 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
18 – 24 July 2022

Solar activity was low. Only C-class flare activity was observed
during the period with a C5.6 flare from Region 3060 and a C6.1 from
Region 3056 on 21 Jul being the largest events. The C5.6 flare
caused the eruption of an approximately 12 degree long filament
centered near N15W01. This resulted in Type II and IV radio sweeps,
est. 1063 Km/s, and a full halo CME. No other Earth-directed CMEs
were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels on 20-21 Jul with a peak flux of 1,920 pfu observed at
GOES at 20/1620 UTC. The 2 MeV electron flux was at background to
moderate levels 18-19 Jul and 22-24 Jul.

Geomagnetic field activity reached active to G1 (Minor) storming
levels on 19 Jul with the arrival of the 15 Jul CME from the
previous reporting period. G1 (Minor) levels were reached again on
21 Jul due to negative polarity CH HSS effects. Predominantly
unsettled levels continued afterwards until early on 23 Jul when an
isolated G1 (Minor) storming period was observed yet again with the
arrival of the full halo CME from 21 Jul. Primarily quiet conditions
were observed on 18, 20 and 23-24 Jul with isolated unsettled
periods.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
25 July – 20 August 2022

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance
for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts through 08 Aug. Activity
is expected to increase to a chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts 09-18 Aug with the anticipated return of more active,
compex regions. Low levels will likely return 19-20 Aug barring
significant development of new active regions.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at moderate to high levels through 27 Jul in response
to negative polarity CH HSS effects. Background to moderate levels
are anticipated for 28 Jul through 11 Aug. A chance for high levels
returns 12 Aug through the remainder of the period due to recurrent
CH features.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) storming
on 17 Aug, and reach active levels on 31 Jul, 03 Aug and 18-19 Aug
due to recurrent CH HSS features. Otherwise, quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for the forecast period.

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jul 25 0307 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2022-07-25
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2022 Jul 25 108 8 3
2022 Jul 26 106 5 2
2022 Jul 27 102 5 2
2022 Jul 28 100 5 2
2022 Jul 29 100 5 2
2022 Jul 30 100 10 3
2022 Jul 31 100 12 4
2022 Aug 01 108 5 2
2022 Aug 02 108 5 2
2022 Aug 03 110 12 4
2022 Aug 04 110 10 3
2022 Aug 05 115 5 2
2022 Aug 06 115 5 2
2022 Aug 07 113 5 2
2022 Aug 08 113 5 2
2022 Aug 09 120 5 2
2022 Aug 10 125 5 2
2022 Aug 11 130 8 3
2022 Aug 12 125 8 3
2022 Aug 13 120 5 2
2022 Aug 14 120 5 2
2022 Aug 15 120 5 2
2022 Aug 16 118 5 2
2022 Aug 17 118 22 5
2022 Aug 18 114 15 4
2022 Aug 19 110 15 4
2022 Aug 20 108 8 3

Copy Protected by Chetan's WP-Copyprotect.